Highlights

• • Market odds (1.301) imply 76.9% win probability for home
• • Our estimate puts home win probability at 79.0%, yielding ~2.8% ROI

Pros

• + Opponent has demonstrably poor form and overall record
• + Current price (1.301) is above our minimum fair odds (1.266), creating positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is small — narrow margin leaves little room for model error
• - Scarce publicly-available data on the home player heightens uncertainty

Details

Market prices make Maria Aran Teixedo Garcia a strong favorite at 1.301 (implied win probability 76.86%). Zoziya Kardava's available profile shows a 10-21 career record and clearly poor recent form, reducing her realistic upset chances. We estimate Maria's true win probability at 79.0%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied 76.86%, producing positive value at the current home price. The margin is small — this is a value bet based on opponent weakness and market pricing rather than overwhelming evidence — so we recommend backing the home player only because the current decimal price (1.301) exceeds the minimum fair odds implied by our model (1.266).

Key factors

• • Away player Zoziya Kardava has a poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (76.86%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (79%)
• • Limited public data on the home player increases uncertainty — value margin is small