Maria Dimitrova vs Aurora Urso
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors Aurora at 1.01 but the break-even probability (~99.01%) exceeds our conservative estimated probability (98%), so we find no value and recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Aurora implied probability at 1.01 is ~99.01%
- • Our conservative estimate (98%) produces a negative EV at current odds
Pros
- + If Aurora truly has ≥99.01% win chance, the 1.01 price would be a tiny positive EV
- + Home price of 19.0 implies a non-negligible upset probability that could be exploitable if strong contrary evidence appears
Cons
- - Insufficient data returned by research — high model uncertainty
- - Current favourite price requires an implausibly high win probability to be +EV
Details
The market is extremely one-sided (Aurora Urso 1.01, Maria Dimitrova 19.0). The break-even probability to justify a bet at 1.01 is ~99.01% (1/1.01). With no external information returned by research, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability for Aurora of 98.0%. At that estimate the expected value of betting Aurora at 1.01 is negative (EV = 0.98 * 1.01 - 1 = -0.0102). The home price (19.0) implies ~5.26% chance; while that looks large relative to a 2% complement, we have no evidence to credibly raise Maria’s win probability toward the ~5.26% needed to make the home side attractive. Given the required win probability to beat the 1.01 market (≥99.01%) exceeds our conservative estimate, we do not identify positive value and therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Extremely short market price for Aurora (implied probability ~99.0%)
- • No external research returned — we use conservative assumptions
- • Break-even probability for 1.01 is higher than our estimated win probability