Highlights

• • Market prices: Home 1.25 (80.0%), Away 3.8 (26.3%)
• • Our estimate: Irem Kurt ~33% → positive EV at current away price

Pros

• + Away price (3.8) offers substantial upside if Irem's experience matters more than home advantage
• + Irem's long-term win rate suggests she is not a weak underdog despite recent isolated losses

Cons

• - Very limited specific data on Maria Herazo Gonzalez and match conditions (surface/venue)
• - Recent results for Irem include losses; lack of detailed form/injury info increases risk

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimate of the players' true chances. The market prices imply Maria Herazo Gonzalez (home) has ~80.0% win probability (1/1.25) and Irem Kurt (away) ~26.3% (1/3.8). Irem Kurt has a long career (559-507, ~52% career win rate) indicating baseline competitiveness and experience that the market may be under-pricing in this matchup. Recent snippets show a couple of losses but no clear injury information; with limited match-specific data on Maria Herazo Gonzalez, we avoid assuming an overwhelming disparity. We conservatively estimate Irem Kurt's true chance at 33.0%, which is materially above the market-implied 26.3%, creating positive expected value at the current away price of 3.8. Therefore we recommend the away side because EV = 0.33*3.8 - 1 = +0.254 (25.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We flag uncertainty due to sparse match-level information and potential surface/venue effects that could legitimately favor the favorite, but under the available data the away price contains value.

Key factors

• • Irem Kurt's long career and 52% career win rate indicate baseline competitiveness
• • Market-implied probability for Irem (26.3%) is substantially below our estimate (33%)
• • Limited match-specific info (surface, form of Maria Herazo Gonzalez) increases uncertainty