Maria Herazo Gonzalez vs Milla Sequeira
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no supporting data and a heavy market favorite, we find no value at current prices; the away price would need to be ~8.333 or higher to be +EV against our conservative 12% upset estimate.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.13) ~88.5% — unlikely to be mispriced enough to justify a bet without data
- • Away would need odds ~8.33 to offer +EV vs our 12% upset estimate; current 5.5 is far short
Pros
- + Market consensus is clear — home is strongly favored, reducing likelihood of overlooked value in-home line
- + Conservative probability avoids overbetting on uncertain upset
Cons
- - Lack of research sources increases uncertainty; hidden variables could change probabilities materially
- - If our upset probability is underestimated, there could be missed longshot value — but current quotes still far below required odds
Details
We find no value on either side given the quoted prices and the lack of corroborating research. The market price heavily favors the home player at 1.13 (implied ~88.5%), which would require us to believe her true win probability exceeds that level to be +EV; with no form, injury, or H2H data available we estimate a materially lower advantage. Conversely, the away price of 5.5 (implied ~18.2%) would require a true upset probability substantially above our conservative estimate to be profitable. Using conservative assumptions and acknowledging high uncertainty, neither price offers positive expected value.
Key factors
- • No independent data on form, surface performance, injuries, or H2H available
- • Market assigns large favoritism to home (1.13); would require >88.5% true win chance to be +EV
- • Conservative estimated upset probability (12%) implies current away price lacks value