Maria Herazo Gonzalez vs Selina Atay
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player: our estimated 78% win probability vs market-implied 71.9% yields ~8.4% ROI at the 1.39 price.
Highlights
- • Selina Atay has limited success and poor recent form in the provided data
- • Home price 1.39 offers positive expected value against our probability estimate
Pros
- + Positive EV at current market odds (≈0.084 per 1 unit staked)
- + Clear negative indicators on the away player from the research
Cons
- - Limited data on the home player in the provided research increases uncertainty
- - Possible unlisted factors (injury, surface preference, matchup specifics) could reduce edge
Details
We believe the market underestimates the home player’s win probability. The listed away player (Selina Atay) has a weak career win rate (10-21) and very poor recent form in the provided recent-match list, suggesting a low chance of victory. The market price for the home player (1.39, implied 71.9%) appears conservative versus our estimated true probability (~78%), producing positive expected value when backing the home side at current odds. Key drivers are Selina Atay’s poor recent performance, her low overall win rate, and the market favoritism toward the home player which still offers value relative to our modelled probability.
Key factors
- • Selina Atay’s weak overall record (10-21) implies ~low baseline win probability
- • Recent form shown in the research indicates multiple recent losses and poor match stats
- • Current market price (home 1.39) implies 71.9% — below our estimated 78% true probability