Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~92.17% (1.085)
• • Our conservative fair probability: 92.0% → min required odds 1.087

Pros

• + Clear market consensus that the home player is heavily favoured
• + If our conservative estimate is too low and true win chance is ≥95%, the favourite would show small positive EV

Cons

• - Current public price (1.085) is marginally worse than the minimum fair price (1.087), yielding negative EV
• - No corroborating match-level data available (form, surface, injuries), increasing uncertainty

Details

We estimate Maria Herazo (home) as a very strong favourite but, with no external form/injury/H2H data available, we take a conservative true-win probability of 92.0% (0.92). The market odds (home 1.085, away 6.2) imply a home probability of ~92.17% and include an implied bookmaker margin (total book ~108.2%), so the quoted home price is slightly shorter than our conservative fair price. Using our 0.92 probability, the expected value at the available home price 1.085 is negative (EV = 0.92 * 1.085 - 1 ≈ -0.0018), so there is no value to exploit at current public prices. Given the lack of independent verification data and the small negative EV even for a strong subjective favourite, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (1/1.085 ≈ 92.17%) is essentially aligned with our conservative 92% estimate
• • Bookmaker margin visible in the two-way market (~8.2% combined implied probability excess) reduces value
• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries or H2H available — we remain conservative