Maria Herazo vs Selina Atay
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the home favorite Maria Herazo at 1.282 because Selina Atay's documented poor form and record make an 85% win probability for Herazo plausible, producing ~9% EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~78% for Herazo; we estimate ~85%
- • Positive expected value at current price (≈8.97% ROI)
Pros
- + Clear underdog profile for Atay in provided research (weak record and recent results)
- + Current price offers a reasonable margin over our estimated fair odds
Cons
- - No scouting data provided for Maria Herazo in the supplied research (adds uncertainty)
- - If undisclosed factors favor Atay (injury, matchup, surface preference) our estimate could be too high
Details
The market prices Maria Herazo at 1.282 (implied probability ~78.0%). The only provided player data is for Selina Atay, who has a 10-21 career record and very poor recent form in the last 10 matches, suggesting she is a clear underdog here. With no research data supplied for Herazo we must rely on Atay's weak metrics to infer a materially higher true win probability for the home player than the market implies. We estimate Herazo's true win probability at 85%, which exceeds the market-implied 78%, creating positive expected value on the 1.282 price. Calculation: EV = 0.85 * 1.282 - 1 = 0.0897 (≈8.97% ROI). Given the absence of contrary information (injuries, surface disadvantage, or H2H data) in the provided research, the available price represents value.
Key factors
- • Selina Atay's poor overall record (10-21) signals low upset probability
- • Atay's recent form in the last 10 matches is weak (multiple losses)
- • Market-implied probability (78.0%) is lower than our estimated true probability (85%)