Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe vs Jaeda Daniel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe as the underdog at 3.6 — our model gives her ~33% chance versus the market's implied ~28% break-even, yielding ~18.8% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home underdog priced 3.6, breakeven probability 27.8%
- • Our estimated win probability (33%) exceeds the breakeven, producing positive EV
Pros
- + Similar career profiles limit a clear edge for the favorite
- + Current odds give a sizable margin above the breakeven threshold for the underdog
Cons
- - Both players show poor recent form; small-sample variability increases uncertainty
- - No head-to-head or injury detail available to refine the estimate
Details
We estimate Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe's true chance to win at ~33%. Both players show near-identical career records (around 10-22 and 10-21) and have experience on the same surfaces (clay, hard). Recent form for both is poor with several recent losses, so the market's heavy favorite price for Jaeda Daniel (1.25, implied ~80%) looks overstated given the parity in records and no clear injury or matchup edge in the research. At a 33% win probability the home price of 3.6 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.33 * 3.6 - 1 = 0.188), so we recommend the underdog at current listed odds.
Key factors
- • Career win-loss records are nearly identical (both ~10-22), indicating matchup parity
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard — no strong surface advantage apparent
- • Market implies an 80% chance for the away player, which seems inconsistent with form and records