Highlights

• • Home odds 2.00 imply 50% but we estimate 55% true win probability
• • Positive EV at current price (≈+0.10 per unit staked)

Pros

• + Clear experience advantage via Kozyreva's long career
• + Current market price (>1.818) offers positive expected value per our model

Cons

• - Doubles outcomes depend heavily on partner chemistry; Shymanovich has limited matches
• - Recent results shown in research indicate poor form for multiple players, increasing variance

Details

We estimate the home pairing (Kozyreva/Shymanovich) has a modest edge versus Piter/Tang based on Maria Kozyreva's long experience and positive overall match record relative to the other three players' limited and losing records. The market prices the home side at 2.00 (50% implied). Given Kozyreva's depth of match experience on hard courts and the general underperformance shown across the listed recent results for the other players, we assign the home team a true win probability above 50%. At our estimated probability (0.55) the home side offers positive expected value: EV = 0.55 * 2.00 - 1 = +0.10 (10% ROI). Doubles chemistry and small-sample noise for the three less-experienced players increase uncertainty, so the edge is moderate rather than large. We recommend betting the home side only because current odds (2.00) exceed our min-required odds (≈1.818) implied by our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Maria Kozyreva's extensive experience and positive long-term record
• • Opponents (Piter/Tang) show limited match volume and losing records
• • All players' recent results indicate form volatility and uncertainty in doubles chemistry