Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.633) = 61.3%
• • We estimate true probability ~57%, below the market, so no positive EV

Pros

• + Home pair includes an experienced player in the provided profiles, which could support favorite status
• + Both teams have played on hard courts per profiles, so surface shouldn't be an oversized swing factor

Cons

• - Recent results in the research show a string of losses and little confidence in form for several players
• - No clear doubles partnership continuity or H2H advantage to justify backing either side at current prices

Details

The market prices Maria Kozyreva / Iryna Shymanovich at 1.633 (implied win probability ~61.3%). After reviewing the provided player profiles we see inconsistent and limited recent form for both pairings, with no reliable H2H and little evidence of a clear dominance by either team on hard courts. Niculescu/Osorio have mixed records and limited recent wins; Kozyreva has a long career but Shymanovich shows a small sample and poor recent results. Given these data points we estimate the home pair's true win probability below the market-implied 61.3%, so there is no positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.633) is ~61.3%, higher than our estimated true probability
• • Both teams show poor or inconsistent recent form in the provided profiles
• • No reliable H2H or stable doubles partnership details in the research to justify market edge