Highlights

• • Market favorite (Away) implied probability after normalization ≈ 67.4%
• • Current price 1.418 produces about -4.4% expected ROI using conservative estimates

Pros

• + Market prices are tight and reflect a clear favorite, reducing obvious mispricing opportunities
• + We used a conservative normalization method to account for overround and avoid overestimating value

Cons

• - No access to surface, recent form, injury or head-to-head data increases uncertainty
• - Negative EV at available bookmakers' prices — a bet would be expected to lose over time

Details

We have no external scouting, injury, surface or H2H data, so we base our view on the market prices and a conservative normalization to remove the bookmaker overround. Market decimal odds imply raw probabilities of 34.13% (Kozyreva) and 70.59% (Trevisan), summing to a ~4.7% overround. Normalizing yields estimated true probabilities of ~32.6% (home) and ~67.4% (away). Using our conservative estimated true probability for the market favorite (Away = 0.674) against the quoted price 1.418 gives EV = 0.674*1.418 - 1 = -0.044 (≈ -4.4% ROI). Neither side shows positive expected value at current prices, so we do not recommend a bet. Given the lack of up-to-date player-specific information, our probability estimates are intentionally conservative and carry elevated uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove overround
• • No external information on recent form, injuries, surface or H2H available
• • Quoted market clearly favors the away player and yields negative EV under conservative probabilities