Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Kozyreva (25.6%) is below our estimate (30%).
• • Experience and career win-rate differential is the main driver of our edge.

Pros

• + At 3.9 the price exceeds our fair odds threshold (3.333) creating positive EV.
• + Much larger career sample and higher overall win rate for Kozyreva.

Cons

• - Recent form entries are limited and show recent losses for both players — introduces uncertainty.
• - No H2H or up-to-date injury information provided; result risk remains meaningful.

Details

We see a clear experience and historical-win-rate edge for Maria Kozyreva in the provided profiles: 559-507 across 1,066 career matches versus 10-21 across 31 matches for Panna Udvardy. Both players have matches listed on hard courts, so surface familiarity is comparable. The market strongly favours Udvardy at 1.26 (implied win prob ~79%), while the offered price for Kozyreva (3.9, implied ~25.6%) appears generous relative to her career win rate and the stark experience differential. Conservatively adjusting for limited recent-form signals (both have recent losses) and uncertainty, we estimate Kozyreva's true win probability at about 30%, which makes the 3.9 quote profitable (EV = 0.30 * 3.9 - 1 = +0.17 or +17% ROI). We recommend backing Kozyreva only because her estimated probability implies required decimal odds of ~3.333 or better and the current market price of 3.9 exceeds that threshold.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Kozyreva 1,066 matches vs Udvardy 31 matches (career-level sample differential)
• • Career win rates favor Kozyreva (≈52.4% vs Udvardy ≈32.3% based on provided records)
• • Both players have hard-court matches in recent records, so surface mismatch risk is limited