Highlights

• • Market implies 77.9% for Carle; we estimate ~82%
• • Estimated EV is ~0.052 (5.2% return on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear experience and career-volume advantage for Carle
• + Current price (1.283) sits above our minimum required odds (1.220) for positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is relatively small — outcome variance in a single match can erase gains
• - Research contains limited recent-match detail and no explicit injury/status clarity

Details

We see Maria Lourdes Carle as the clear favorite based on the provided career profiles: substantially greater career volume and a positive overall record versus Jessica Pieri's limited match sample and losing record. The market price for Carle (1.283 decimal, implied 77.9%) appears slightly soft relative to our assessment of her true win chance. We estimate Carle's true probability at 82.0%, giving a modest edge versus the implied market probability (~77.9%). At our estimate the edge is about 4.1 percentage points and produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.82 * 1.283 - 1 = 0.052). The value is not large, so this is a small positive-expectation opportunity driven by experience differential, broader surface adaptability, and Pieri's short, losing sample.

Key factors

• • Carle has a long career and substantially more match experience and wins than Pieri
• • Pieri's profile shows limited matches and a losing record (smaller sample, higher upset variance)
• • Current market odds (1.283) imply ~77.9%; our assessment (~82%) yields a small positive edge