Highlights

• • Carle far more experienced and broadly more successful over a long career
• • Current market price (1.05) implies a higher probability than our estimate, producing a small negative EV

Pros

• + Experience and larger match sample strongly favor Carle
• + Low likelihood of upset in normal conditions

Cons

• - Carle's career win rate is not overwhelmingly dominant, so a >95% market price is questionable
• - Small edges and short prices are sensitive to model error and variance

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.05, implied ~95.2%) to our out-turn estimate. Maria Lourdes Carle is the clear favorite based on career depth and experience (1066 matches vs Yang's 31) and Yang's poor record (10-21), but Carle's career win rate (~52.5%) and recent mixed results do not justify assigning her a >95% chance to win. We estimate Carle's true win probability at 93%, which implies a fair price of ~1.075. At the available 1.05 the expected value is slightly negative (EV = 0.93 * 1.05 - 1 ≈ -0.024), so there is no profitable value to back the favorite at current market odds. Given the small margin between our probability and the implied market probability, the market price appears tight and not exploitable.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Carle 1066 career matches vs Yang 31 matches
• • Career form differential: Carle ~52.5% career win rate vs Yang ~32% win rate
• • Market price implies >95% for Carle; our estimate is ~93%, so no value at 1.05