Highlights

• • Carle is the experienced favorite but supplied data does not justify a >95% win probability
• • At our 92% estimate the current 1.05 price is negative EV (≈ -0.034 per unit)

Pros

• + Carle has far greater career experience and a higher absolute match count
• + Yang's short career and losing record suggests Carle is the safer match-level favorite

Cons

• - Bookmaker odds have already compressed almost all value into an extremely short price
• - Supplied recent results show losses for both players and no decisive advantage to justify >95% probability

Details

We estimate Carle is clearly the stronger player based on career experience (559-507 over 1,066 matches) versus Yang's small sample (10-21 over 31 matches), but the market price (Carle 1.05) implies >95% win probability which we cannot justify from the supplied data. Both players show recent losses in the supplied recent-match lines, and there are no injury reports or decisive H2H data in the research to push Carle's true win probability above the ~95.2% threshold required to make a 1.05 price profitable. Using a realistic estimated true probability of Carle winning at 0.920 (92%), the required fair decimal price to break even would be ~1.087; the current 1.05 offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the 1.05 favorite despite the heavy market lean.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Carle has 1,066 career matches vs Yang's 31
• • Recent form in supplied lines shows losses for both players; no clear hot streak for Carle
• • Current market price (1.05) implies an implausibly high win probability (>95%) given supplied data