Highlights

• • Home implied probability 81.1% vs our estimated true probability for away 40%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds to back the away are 2.50; current 3.8 is well above that

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market odds and our estimated probability creates strong EV
• + Provided profiles show no clear edge for the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Available data is sparse and does not include H2H or ranking detail—uncertainty remains
• - Backing the underdog is higher variance despite positive expected value

Details

We see a large market gap: the home moneyline 1.233 implies ~81.1% win probability while the away price 3.8 implies ~26.3%. The available profiles show both Maria Oliver Sanchez and Marina Benito with essentially identical career spans, surfaces played (clay and hard), identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results; there is no concrete performance edge or injury information to justify an 81% chance for the listed home favorite. Given symmetry in the provided data and no H2H or injury edge, we estimate Marina Benito's true win probability at 40%. At the current decimal odds 3.8 that yields EV = 0.40 * 3.8 - 1 = +0.52 (52% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Therefore the away side looks value-priced vs the market. Odds used for EV calculations: 3.8 (away).

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and career spans in the provided data
• • Both have clay experience listed; surface gives no clear advantage to home
• • Market-implied probabilities are heavily skewed (home ~81.1%, away ~26.3%) with no supporting evidence in the profiles