Highlights

• • Market implies Sakkari ~67.1% to win (1.49) vs our estimated 55%
• • Required minimum odds for value on Sakkari are ~1.818

Pros

• + Conservative probability acknowledges both players' identical poor form in the research
• + Clear cutoff for when value would appear (odds ≥ 1.818)

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks decisive differentiators (injuries, H2H, surface performance), increasing uncertainty
• - Declaring no-bet may miss a market inefficiency if relevant data outside the provided research exists

Details

We compared the listed moneyline (Maria Sakkari 1.49, implied win probability ~67.1%) to our assessment based solely on the provided player profiles. The research shows nearly identical recent records (10-21) and poor recent form for both players, with no useful injury, H2H, or surface-advantage data to justify a large gap in true win probability. Conservatively we assign Maria Sakkari a 55% true win probability, which is materially below the market-implied 67.1%, so the current 1.49 price does not represent positive expected value. To obtain value on Sakkari we would need odds ≥ 1.818; the away price at 2.55 implies ~39.2% — we see no basis to raise our estimate of Jacquemot that high given identical records and form in the research.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical reported win-loss records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided research
• • Market heavily favors Sakkari at 1.49 (implied ~67.1%) but the research offers no evidence to support such a large edge
• • No injuries, H2H, or clear surface advantage included in the research to justify betting against the market