Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Sakkari is ~67.6%, which looks overstated given the provided data
• • Jacquemot at 2.65 offers positive expected value if her true chance is ~40%

Pros

• + Positive EV at widely available current price (2.65)
• + Assessment based on symmetry in the provided season records and recent form

Cons

• - Edge is modest (EV ~6%) and sensitive to small probability shifts
• - Limited detail in the research (no H2H, ranking, or clear injury info) increases uncertainty

Details

We assess value on Elsa Jacquemot (away). Market prices Maria Sakkari at 1.48 (implied 67.6%) and Jacquemot at 2.65 (implied 37.7%). The research shows both players with nearly identical season records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form, so the market's ~68% probability for Sakkari appears overstated. We estimate the true win probability closer to 40% for Jacquemot (60% Sakkari), reflecting a modest home/favoritism edge but not the market's degree. At our estimate the away price 2.65 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.40*2.65 - 1 = +0.06). Given symmetric evidence from the provided profiles and lack of convincing form/injury advantage for Sakkari, the away price represents value.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical season records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors Sakkari (1.48) despite limited evidence of a large performance gap
• • No clear injury or surface advantage reported in the research to justify market margin