Highlights

• • Timofeeva has a much larger career sample and higher win percentage
• • Current price (1.694) implies ~59.1%; our model estimates 62.0%

Pros

• + Experience and larger match sample reduce variance and inform projection
• + Price offers a small positive edge (EV ≈ 0.05) at current odds

Cons

• - Edge is modest — not a large margin; profit per stake is limited
• - Recent match-level form data in the provided profiles is noisy and incomplete

Details

We estimate Maria Timofeeva has a clear edge based on career-level experience and a substantially larger sample of matches (1066 matches, 559-507 record) versus Alina Charaeva's limited record (31 matches, 10-21). Both profiles list Hard as a played surface, removing a major surface mismatch concern, but Timofeeva's career win rate (~52.4%) versus Charaeva's (~32.3%) and far greater match experience lead us to a higher true win probability for Timofeeva. The market price (home 1.694 -> implied 59.06%) understates Timofeeva relative to our estimated true probability of 62.0%, producing positive expected value. Calculation: implied prob = 1/1.694 = 0.5906; our p = 0.62; EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.62 * 1.694 - 1 = 0.05028 (≈ +5.0% ROI). We acknowledge noisy recent results and limited transfer data for Charaeva, so the edge is modest but present at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Timofeeva 1066 matches vs Charaeva 31 matches
• • Career win-rate gap: Timofeeva ~52.4% vs Charaeva ~32.3%
• • Both players listed as having played Hard (no clear surface disadvantage)