Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Timofeeva: ~58.8%; our estimate: 62%
• • Estimated EV at current odds: +5.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Larger career sample and higher historical win rate indicates more reliable baseline level
• + Current price (1.70) offers breakeven odds below our estimated true probability threshold (min required 1.613)

Cons

• - Recent form for both players shows losses, increasing short-term variance and uncertainty
• - Data provided has limited detail on injuries, H2H, and venue specifics which increases model risk

Details

We evaluate Maria Timofeeva as the value side. Her career win-rate across a large sample is substantially higher than Anna-Lena Friedsam's limited sample and poor win-loss ratio, and both players have recorded recent losses but Timofeeva's larger match experience and proven results across surfaces suggest a higher true win probability than the market-implied price. The bookmaker decimal price for Timofeeva (1.70) implies a win probability of ~58.8%; we estimate her true probability at ~62%, producing positive expected value (EV = 0.62*1.70 - 1 = +0.054). The edge is modest but positive after comparing implied vs. estimated probability; given the limited recent form signal for both players and Friedsam's thin sample size, this is a reasonable value bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Timofeeva's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate versus Friedsam's limited 31-match sample and 10-21 record
• • Current market-implied probability (1/1.70 = 58.8%) is below our estimated true probability (62%), creating positive EV
• • Both players show recent losses, but Friedsam's limited match volume and lower win percentage raise uncertainty and tilt expectation toward Timofeeva