Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (72.5%) is below our estimated 78%
• • Experience and overall win-rate heavily favor Timofeeva

Pros

• + Clear experience and sample-size advantage
• + Both players have recent defeats, but Timofeeva's depth makes recovery more likely

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players which introduces some uncertainty
• - Lack of direct H2H data and limited contextual tournament specifics increase variance

Details

The market prices Maria Timofeeva at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%). We estimate Timofeeva's true win probability higher (~78%) based on a large experience and win-rate advantage (career 559-507 across many surfaces) versus Sohyun Park's limited sample (10-21 in 31 matches) and lower career win-rate. Both players show recent losses, but Park's shorter career and poorer record increase upset variance. Given both have experience on hard courts and no clear injury flags in the provided research, the 1.38 price appears to offer value: our estimated probability (0.78) against the quoted odds yields a positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.78 * 1.38 - 1 = 0.0764 (≈7.6% ROI).

Key factors

• • Large experience differential: Timofeeva 1066 matches vs Park 31 matches
• • Career win-rate gap: Timofeeva substantially higher win % than Park
• • Both have recent losses but Park's limited sample increases upset variance