Highlights

• • Market implies ~80.7% for Timofeeva (1.24) — far above our 61.9% estimate
• • Fair price for value would be ~1.616 or longer

Pros

• + Timofeeva shows greater career experience and a notably higher aggregate win rate
• + Both players have experience on hard and clay, so surface mismatch risk is reduced

Cons

• - Market price for Timofeeva is extremely short, offering negative expected value versus our estimate
• - Park's small career sample creates uncertainty — outcome variance is higher than the raw percentages imply

Details

We compare the market price (Maria Timofeeva 1.24 implied win probability ~80.7%) to our estimate of match win probability derived from the provided career records and recent form. Timofeeva's career win rate (559/1066 = 52.4%) versus Sohyun Park's smaller-sample win rate (10/31 = 32.3%) suggests a clear edge for Timofeeva, but not nearly as large as the book implies. We normalize their career win rates to estimate a head-to-head probability: 0.524 / (0.524 + 0.323) = 0.619 (61.9%). That accounts for the big difference in sample size and experience in the supplied data while remaining conservative given both players' recent losses. At our estimated probability (61.9%), the fair decimal price would be ~1.616; the current market price of 1.24 is far shorter and produces a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices because it offers no value.

Key factors

• • Timofeeva has much larger career sample and higher overall win rate (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Park's small sample (31 matches) increases uncertainty but shows lower win rate
• • Market implies ~80.7% for Timofeeva (1.24) which is substantially higher than our ~61.9% estimate