Highlights

• • Market implies 62.0% win chance; we estimate 64.0%
• • Experience gap (1066 vs 31 matches) favors Maria and supports higher true probability

Pros

• + Maria's long career and higher win-rate provide a steadier baseline and lower variance
• + Current price (1.613) is above the minimum required (1.563) for our probability estimate

Cons

• - Recent match losses are present for both players, introducing short-term form risk
• - Edge is modest (~3.2% ROI) and sensitive to overestimation of Maria's probability

Details

We estimate Maria Toma is undervalued by the market. The book price of 1.613 implies a market probability of ~62.0% (1/1.613). We estimate Maria's true win probability at 64.0% based on a materially higher career win rate (559-507 over a 1066-match career) versus Leticia's smaller sample and weaker record (10-21 over 31 matches), plus stronger demonstrated multi-surface experience including clay. Recent individual-match losses exist for both, but Maria's large sample size makes her baseline reliability higher; therefore the current odds offer small positive edge: EV = 0.64 * 1.613 - 1 = 0.03232 (≈3.23% ROI). We used the current decimal odds (1.613) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Clear experience and career win-rate advantage (Maria 559-507 vs Leticia 10-21)
• • Large sample reliability for Maria vs high variance from Leticia's small match count
• • Both players have clay/hard experience, but Maria's multi-surface play reduces matchup risk
• • Market-implied probability (~62.0%) is below our conservative true probability estimate (64.0%)