Maria Herazo Gonzalez vs Warona Mdlulwa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Warona Mdlulwa at 12.5; using a conservative 12% true win probability yields a +0.50 EV (50% ROI) and a break-even price of 8.333.
Highlights
- • Book price away 12.5 implies ~8.0% win chance
- • Our conservative estimate 12% produces substantial positive EV (0.50)
Pros
- + Large gap between market-implied probability and our conservative estimated probability
- + Clear mathematical positive EV at current decimal odds
Cons
- - No opponent (Maria) performance or ranking data provided to fully contextualize quality gap
- - Warona's recent results include multiple losses and limited sample size, increasing uncertainty
Details
The market prices Maria Herazo Gonzalez as an almost certain winner (home 1.03 implied ~97.1%). Warona Mdlulwa's available profile shows a 10-21 career record (31 matches) and recent losses, which on raw win-rate (10/31 ≈ 32%) would imply a much higher baseline chance than the market's 8.0% implied probability for the away side. Because we lack opponent-specific data for Maria, we conservatively downgrade Warona's baseline to 12% true win probability to account for likely stronger opposition and recent poor form. At that estimate, the required break-even decimal price is 1/0.12 = 8.333; the offered 12.5 creates positive expected value. Calculation used: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.12 * 12.5 - 1 = 0.50 (50% ROI). Given the large gap between the market implied probability (8.0%) and our conservative estimate (12%), the away side represents value at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Warona Mdlulwa career record 10-21 (31 matches) indicates ability to win matches despite underdog pricing
- • Market implies only ~8.0% for the away player (12.5), which is materially below even a conservative true-win estimate
- • Lack of opponent-specific data forces conservative down-adjustment of Warona's baseline; recent form shows losses but not complete absence of wins