Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~83.1% vs our 88% estimate
• • EV per unit stake ≈ 0.0595 (≈5.95%) at current odds

Pros

• + Irem Kurt's recent form and career trend suggest lower upset potential
• + Current price (1.204) is slightly generous relative to our probability model

Cons

• - No direct data on Maria Herazo in the research increases uncertainty
• - Bookmaker margin and lack of surface/H2H specifics add model risk

Details

We view Maria Herazo as a clear favorite and estimate her true win probability at 88%. The market price of 1.204 implies a win probability of ~83.1% (1/1.204), so the bookmaker's price appears to undervalue the home side by about 5 percentage points. Our view is supported by the provided profile for Irem Kurt showing a long career with an overall modest record (559-507) and recent losses, indicating form decline and lower likelihood of an upset. While surface and direct H2H information for Maria are not available in the research, the combination of Irem's recent poor results and the heavy market favoritism toward Maria justify a modest positive edge at the current price. We used the current decimal moneyline (1.204) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Book market implies ~83.1% for Maria vs our 88% estimate
• • Irem Kurt shows long career with modest record and recent losses indicating decline
• • No contradicting data on Maria in provided research; lack of contra-information increases book bias toward favorite