Highlights

• • Market implies ~45.0% for Ivanova (2.22) while we estimate ~58%
• • Maria's limited match history (31 matches) and losing record suggest higher volatility than the market accounts for

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current widely-available price (2.22)
• + Ivanova's deep experience and career winning baseline favor consistency in match-play situations

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses in the provided snippets, so short-term form risk exists
• - Maria's underdog/favorite market status could indicate non-public factors (local conditions, draw) not visible in the supplied data

Details

We view Dasha Ivanova (away) as the value play. The market has Maria Jose Portillo Ramirez as the favorite at 1.599 (implied ~62.5%), but the player profiles show Maria with a small sample (31 matches, 10-21) and a losing record, while Dasha brings extensive experience and a positive overall record across a much larger sample (559-507 over 1066 matches). Both players have history on hard and clay, so surface advantage is not clearly on Maria's side. Recent form snippets in the research show losses for both, but Dasha's durable career-level winning baseline and match experience make her more likely to handle match pressure and margin situations in an ITF R16 setting. At our estimated true win probability for Ivanova of 0.58, the current away price of 2.22 offers positive expected value versus the market-implied 0.450. We therefore recommend the away side only because EV > 0 at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap and superior long-term win rate for Dasha Ivanova
• • Small sample and losing record for Maria Jose Portillo Ramirez increases variance and uncertainty
• • Market prices favor the home under circumstances that don't match the career-level evidence, producing value on the away side