Highlights

• • Market overprices the home team relative to our conservative 57% estimate
• • Insufficient positive signal in form or matchup to justify a wager at current odds

Pros

• + Home contains the more experienced individual (Kozyreva)
• + Surface (hard) is within profiles for all players

Cons

• - Partner inconsistency for the home side reduces paired upside
• - Both teams show recent losses in the provided research with no clear form edge

Details

We estimate the home pairing of Kozyreva/Shymanovich to have ~57% win probability on hard courts based on combined experience of Kozyreva versus mixed recent form and limited evidence of consistent results from Shymanovich; the market price (home 1.625 implied 61.5%) overstates the favourite. The research shows fragmented recent results for all four players with no clear advantage for the home side large enough to justify the current price. At our estimated true probability (0.57) the expected return at the posted home odds (1.625) is negative (EV ≈ -0.074 per unit). Because there is no positive expected value at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Home pair includes an experienced player (Kozyreva) but partner (Shymanovich) has limited match-win history
• • Opponents Niculescu/Osorio include a veteran (Niculescu) and a younger player (Osorio) — mixed form on hard surfaces
• • Recent results for all four players in the provided research show losses and no clear momentum advantage
• • Market-implied probability (61.5% for home) exceeds our estimated true probability (57%), removing value