Maria Sakkari vs Elsa Jacquemot

Highlights

• • Market implies Sakkari 38.2% but we estimate ~45%
• • Positive EV of ~0.179 per unit at current price

Pros

• + Current price (2.62) exceeds our min-required odds (2.222) for a 45% win chance
• + No research-provided injury or surface disadvantage for Sakkari

Cons

• - Research supplied shows both players with identical records and recent losses, increasing model uncertainty
• - Limited dataset and lack of head-to-head or contextual info means our probability is conservative and could be wrong

Details

We find value on the home moneyline (Maria Sakkari) because the market prices her at 2.62 (implied win probability 38.2%) while the limited research available shows virtually identical head-to-head indicators for both players (matching 10-21 records and similar recent results on clay and hard). Given that parity in the provided data and no clear injury or surface disadvantage in the research, we assign Sakkari a higher true win probability than the market (we estimate 45%). At that probability the current price of 2.62 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.62 - 1 = +0.179), so a back of the home player is justified under a value-driven approach. We note uncertainty due to sparse, identical public data and therefore use a conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical win-loss records and recent results in the provided research
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied ~65.9%), creating a pricing discrepancy vs. parity in data
• • No injuries or surface-specific disadvantages disclosed in the provided research, increasing uncertainty but supporting a conservative uplift to home probability