Maria Sara Popa vs Jenny Duerst

Highlights

• • Market implies Popa ~49.0% but our estimate is 52%
• • Minimum fair odds given our estimate = 1.923; current 2.04 > threshold

Pros

• + Price offers positive expected value at current market odds
• + Players are closely matched on paper so market favorite looks over-priced

Cons

• - Small sample and limited recent-performance differentiation in the research
• - No H2H or clear surface/injury edge — higher uncertainty than well-documented matches

Details

We find value on the home player Maria Sara Popa. The market prices Jenny Duerst as the favorite at 1.685 (implied ~59.3%) while Popa is available at 2.04 (implied ~49.0%). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (Popa 10-21, Duerst 10-22), similar surface experience (both play Clay and Hard), and comparable recent form (both struggling with losses). With no clear H2H edge or injury information and largely neutral surface/venue factors, we view the matchup as closer to even or slightly in Popa's favor due to marginal data parity and no premium on current market favorite. We estimate Popa's true win probability at 52% (0.52). At the quoted decimal 2.04 (odds_used_for_ev = 2.04) the expected value is positive: EV = 0.52 * 2.04 - 1 = 0.0608 (≈6.1% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability is 1.923, and the current market price of 2.04 exceeds that threshold, producing value.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surface experience (Popa 10-21 vs Duerst 10-22)
• • No clear injuries, H2H, or surface advantage in the provided research
• • Market favors Duerst too strongly relative to parity in available data (bookmaker margin present)