Maria Toma vs Gloria Contrino
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away price (10.5) offers value because Maria's market-implied probability is unrealistically high versus her career record and recent losses; a modest 12% upset chance yields ~26% ROI.
Highlights
- • Market heavily overestimates Maria based on available profile
- • Small assigned upset probability is sufficient to produce positive EV at 10.5
Pros
- + High potential ROI (EV ~26%) at current quoted odds
- + Decision is robust to reasonable ranges of Gloria's true strength due to wide priced gap
Cons
- - Very limited information on Gloria increases model uncertainty
- - If Maria's form issues are overstated or opponent is much weaker, value disappears
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimate of true outcome chances based solely on the available player profile. The market prices make Maria Toma an overwhelming favourite (1.04 implies ~96.15% win probability), which is inconsistent with her career win rate (~52.4%) and the recent form notes showing losses. We lack any data on Gloria Contrino, which raises uncertainty and increases the reasonable chance of an upset. Given the extreme short price on Maria, even a modest estimated chance for Gloria (we use 12%) produces positive expected value at the current away price of 10.5. Therefore we recommend taking the away line as value at current quoted odds.
Key factors
- • Market implies Maria win probability (~96%) far above her documented career win rate (~52%)
- • Maria's recent results in the provided snapshot show losses, suggesting form deterioration
- • No data on Gloria increases uncertainty and protects a non-trivial upset probability