Maria Toma vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors home (1.417) despite similar profiles
• • Underdog away price (2.69) exceeds our required fair odds (2.222)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (≈0.21 per unit)
• + Decision grounded on symmetric player data and lack of reported mitigating factors

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and noisy records increase outcome variance
• - No H2H or surface-specific advantage data in the research; uncertainty remains

Details

We estimate Julia Konishi Camargo Silva (away) is undervalued by the market. The published moneyline (home 1.417 / away 2.69) implies win probabilities of ~70.6% for Maria Toma and ~37.2% for Julia — a split that is inconsistent with the research: both players have nearly identical career records (Maria 10-21, Julia 10-22) and similar recent form (several recent losses). With no clear injury or surface advantage shown in the research and no decisive H2H edge, a much tighter true probability is justified. We conservatively estimate Julia's true win probability at 45%; at decimal odds 2.69 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.69 - 1 ≈ 0.211). The market appears to be over-pricing home favoritism, creating a value opportunity backing the away player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent form between the two players
• • Market-implied probabilities (home 70.6% / away 37.2%) appear extreme given available data
• • No injury or surface advantage reported in the provided research