Mariam Atia vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (13.3%) looks undervalued relative to comparable player data
• • At 7.5 the home line clears the fair-price threshold (5.0) by a comfortable margin

Pros

• + Large decimal price (7.5) relative to our conservative probability creates strong positive EV
• + No research evidence (form, surface, injuries) to justify the market's extreme favoritism

Cons

• - Research coverage is limited; there may be external factors (e.g., last-minute injury, ranking gap, local conditions) not in the provided data
• - Underdog outcomes are inherently higher variance — actual short-term variance could erase expected profit

Details

We find clear value on the home moneyline. The market price (home 7.5 / away 1.08) implies the away player has ~92.6% win probability, which is inconsistent with the available player data: both players show nearly identical season records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay/hard) and recent form with several losses. There are no injury reports or clear surface/H2H advantages in the research that justify a >90% implied probability for the away player. Conservatively estimating the true chance for the home player at 20% (0.20) yields a required fair decimal price of 5.0; the offered 7.5 therefore provides positive expected value. Using the quoted home odds (7.5) gives EV = 0.20 * 7.5 - 1 = +0.50 (50% ROI) per unit staked.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical season records (10-21), indicating similar baseline ability
• • Both compete on the same surfaces (clay and hard); no clear surface edge identified
• • Market implies an extreme probability for the away player (~92.6%) that conflicts with the players' comparable profiles