Mariana Costa vs Hibah Shaikh

Highlights

• • Hibah priced at 1.03 implies ~97% win probability despite a sub-50% career record in the research
• • Fair price implied by Hibah true probability (our conservative 40%) is ~2.50 — far from market

Pros

• + Clear mispricing on the heavy favorite indicates the market is likely overconfident
• + If additional opponent/context data were available, the longshot (13.0) could be worth re-evaluating

Cons

• - Insufficient information about Mariana Costa prevents a confident longshot valuation
• - Even a generous estimate for Hibah does not justify betting at 1.03 (large negative EV)

Details

We compare the market prices to what the available match data supports. The market makes Hibah Shaikh an overwhelming favorite at 1.03 (implied ~97.1%). Hibah's documented career record in the provided research is 10-21 (~32% career win rate) with a run of recent losses and no supporting evidence in the research that she'd reliably be a 97% probability to win this match. Using a conservative, research-driven estimate for Hibah's true win probability (40%), the fair price would be ~2.50 (decimal). At the current market price of 1.03 the expected return is strongly negative, and we have no data on Mariana Costa to justify switching the recommendation to the heavy underdog at 13.0. Given the combination of Hibah's modest historical performance and the lack of opponent/condition data, the book is offering no value on either side at the quoted odds, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Hibah Shaikh's recorded career win rate in the provided data is 10-21 (~32%) and recent matches show a string of losses
• • Market price of 1.03 for Hibah implies ~97% win probability, which is not supported by the available performance data
• • No usable data on Mariana Costa in the provided research increases uncertainty and prevents justifying a longshot back at 13.0