Highlights

• • Market favorite (home) normalized to ~52.4% win chance
• • Our conservative true probability estimate for home (52.0%) yields negative EV at 1.77

Pros

• + We are conservative with probabilities due to limited opponent/surface data
• + Avoids betting into uncertain information that produces negative EV

Cons

• - Insufficient information on Marianna Argyrokastriti prevents identifying a leverageable edge
• - Alyssa's career win-rate masks recent form decline, adding uncertainty

Details

We find no clear value on either side. The market prices (Home 1.77, Away 1.95) imply normalized win probabilities of about 52.4% for the home player and 47.6% for the away player after removing vig. The only specific data available is Alyssa Reguer's career record (~559-507, ~52.5% lifetime win rate) and some recent losses, but there is no reliable information on Marianna Argyrokastriti, head-to-head, or surface advantage to justify deviating from the market. If we conservatively estimate the true probability for the home player at 52.0% (slightly below the market-implied 52.4% given the uncertainty and Reguer's recent form), the expected value at the current home price (1.77) is negative (EV = 0.52*1.77 - 1 = -0.08). Evaluating Alyssa as the away pick with a conservative true probability near 48.0% also produces a negative EV at 1.95 (EV = 0.48*1.95 - 1 = -0.06). Given lack of opponent data and mixed recent form, neither price offers positive expected value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home ~52.4%, away ~47.6% after normalizing
• • Alyssa Reguer long career win-rate ~52.5% but recent results show losses
• • No usable data available for Marianna Argyrokastriti, H2H, or surface/venue edge