Marianna Argyrokastriti vs Federica Sacco

Highlights

• • Sacco's career win rate (~32%) is far below the market-implied win probability for this match
• • Backing the home player at 2.28 yields a positive EV of ~25.4% against our model probability

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between Sacco's documented form and the market price
• + Current home price (2.28) exceeds our min-required odds (1.818) for a positive edge

Cons

• - Very limited direct information on Marianna Argyrokastriti in the provided research
• - No H2H, surface-specific matchup data, or injury updates provided — adds uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Away Federica Sacco 1.57 implied ~63.7% and Home Marianna Argyrokastriti 2.28 implied ~43.9%) to our assessment based on the available research. The only concrete player data provided is Federica Sacco's career profile: a 10-21 record (≈32% career win rate) with a poor recent run of losses. That historical win rate and recent form conflict with the market's strong favoritism of Sacco at 1.57, suggesting the market is overestimating her chances. With no specific evidence provided about Argyrokastriti we remain conservative but conclude the home player’s true win probability is materially higher than the market-implied ~44% for the 2.28 quote. Using an estimated true probability of 55% for the home player yields positive expected value at the current home decimal price (EV = 0.55 * 2.28 - 1 = +0.254). Therefore we recommend backing the home player at 2.28 because the price offers value versus our probability estimate. We note uncertainty due to limited data on the home player and the absence of H2H, surface breakdown for this specific match, or injury information.

Key factors

• • Federica Sacco's career record is 10-21 (~32% win rate), indicating weak long-term performance
• • Market heavily favors Sacco at 1.57 (implied ~63.7%), which conflicts with her documented form
• • Home price 2.28 implies ~43.9% — we assess true home probability materially higher (~55%) creating value