Marianna Argyrokastriti vs Valeriia Artemeva

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~90.1%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate: 92% → positive EV

Pros

• + Clear relative form advantage vs Artemeva's 10-21 record
• + Current price (1.11) offers a small but positive expected value under our estimate

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to estimation error — limited margin for error
• - Sparse public data on the home player increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Marianna Argyrokastriti's win probability materially above the market-implied price reflected in 1.11. The market implies ~90.1% (1/1.11). Valeriia Artemeva's career record (10-21) and recent form indicate a clearly inferior player on the surfaces listed, with limited recent wins and consecutive losses in recent events. We conservatively project Marianna's true win probability at 92%, which is higher than the market-implied 90.1%, creating a small positive edge. Using the quoted home decimal odds (1.11) produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.92 * 1.11 - 1 ≈ 0.021). Given the small edge and limited data on the home player, this is a modest value situation rather than a large misprice.

Key factors

• • Artemeva's poor overall record (10-21) and recent losses indicate low upside
• • Market-implied probability (≈90.1%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (92%)
• • Limited additional public info on Marianna suggests the edge is modest and comes with uncertainty