Highlights

• • Nicole priced as virtual certainty despite a 10-21 career record
• • At 15.0, Marianne needs only ~6.67% true chance to be fair; we estimate ~8%

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current quoted price (0.20 expected return per unit)
• + Market appears to overstate favorite, creating exploitable longshot value

Cons

• - Very limited information on Marianne; uncertainty around matchup specifics is high
• - Nicole may have unreported factors (fitness, late withdrawals, superior head-to-head) that justify heavy favoritism

Details

We see a dramatic market skew: Nicole Fossa Huergo is priced at 1.01 (implied win prob ~99.0%) while Marianne Angel Gonzalez is 15.0 (implied ~6.67%). That market price implies near-certainty for Nicole which conflicts with the limited performance data available for Nicole: a 10-21 career record (10/31 ≈ 32% career win rate) and recent losses noted in her match log. Given Nicole's sub-50% historical win rate and recent poor form, the market's implied probability is implausibly high. We conservatively estimate Marianne's true probability to win at 8% (0.08), which is materially higher than the market-implied 6.67% for the 15.0 price; at 15.0 this produces positive expected value. Calculation: expected value = 0.08 * 15.0 - 1 = 0.20 (20% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore identify Marianne at 15.0 as a value play because our estimated probability (8%) exceeds the market-implied probability (6.67%). We note the data set is sparse and uncertain, so we use a conservative estimate of Marianne's chance while still capturing the large market mispricing.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~99% for Nicole (1.01) which conflicts with her 10-21 career record (~32% wins)
• • Nicole's recent results show losses and limited positive form
• • Huge payout on Marianne (15.0) pushes implied probability to ~6.67%, below our conservative estimate