Highlights

• • Marianne career win rate ~32%, recent form poor
• • Implied market probability (~61%) materially exceeds our 35% estimate

Pros

• + Marianne is listed as the home/favored player by the market
• + She has match experience on hard and clay surfaces

Cons

• - Poor overall record (10-21) and recent losing streak
• - No information available on the opponent to justify market favoritism; high uncertainty

Details

We estimate Marianne Argyrokastriti's true chance to win this ITF R1 match at roughly 35% based on her 10-21 career record (31 matches) and clearly poor recent form (most recent results are losses). The market price on the home moneyline (1.629 => implied 61.4%) heavily favors Marianne, which creates a large disconnect between implied market probability and our assessment. Using our probability (0.35) and the quoted home odds (1.629) yields EV = 0.35 * 1.629 - 1 = -0.430 (negative). To achieve positive EV on our 35% estimate, the market would need to offer at least decimal 2.857. Given the lack of any opponent data for Kateryna Diatlova in the provided research and Marianne's subpar results, we cannot justify taking the favorite at current prices. Therefore we recommend no bet unless odds move to at least 2.857 for Marianne or we obtain additional information that meaningfully raises our win-probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Marianne's career win rate is 10/31 (~32%) with recent losses indicating poor form
• • Market-implied probability for Marianne (1.629 -> ~61.4%) is far higher than our estimate
• • No data provided on Kateryna Diatlova, creating high uncertainty about relative matchup strength