Highlights

• • Alyssa's deep career and higher win rate suggest greater consistency
• • Bookmakers' pricing seems to overvalue the home player relative to available form data

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for Alyssa
• + Current decimal odds (1.952) exceed our minimum required odds (1.667) for positive EV

Cons

• - No H2H or in-tournament form specifics available in the provided research
• - Small-sample volatility for Marianne could produce an upset

Details

The market prices Marianne Argyrokastriti as the favorite (1.787) despite a small sample and weak win rate (10-21 career record) in the provided data. Alyssa Reguer has a substantially deeper career sample (559-507, 1066 matches) and broader surface experience, which we view as a strong indicator of consistency and matchup advantage in an ITF R16 setting. The away price (1.952, implied ~51.2%) appears to understate Alyssa's chances. We estimate Alyssa's true win probability at 60% based on her superior career win rate, experience edge, and surface versatility versus Marianne's limited record and recent poor form, producing positive expected value at the current away price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Alyssa 1066 matches vs Marianne 31 matches
• • Career win rates favor Alyssa (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Surface versatility and consistency favor Alyssa
• • Marianne's recent form and small sample size increase variance