Marianne Argyrokastriti vs Federica Sacco
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Available data shows near-perfect parity between the players; the home price of 2.03 slightly exceeds our fair price and offers small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Research shows matching win-loss records and similar recent results — little to separate them
- • Home at 2.03 offers slight value vs our 50% estimated win probability
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price (EV ≈ 1.5%)
- + No research-supported advantage for the favorite to justify the market gap
Cons
- - Edge is small: modest EV and high variance typical of ITF-level matches
- - Research is limited (no H2H, limited surface/injury detail), increasing model uncertainty
Details
Both players show effectively identical profiles and records in the provided data (10-21 overall, similar recent results and surfaces), indicating a near-even matchup. The market prices Federica Sacco as the favorite at 1.714 (implied 58.3%) and prices Marianne Argyrokastriti at 2.03 (implied 49.3%). Given the parity in the available performance data, we estimate the true win probability for Argyrokastriti at 50.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.000; the offered 2.03 exceeds this threshold and therefore offers positive expected value. The market shows a visible overround (~7.6%), and without any clear form, surface or injury edge for Sacco in the research, the home price contains a small value margin worth betting.
Key factors
- • Profiles and recent records in the research are effectively identical (10-21), implying parity
- • Market implies Sacco as clear favorite (58.3%) while our model estimates near 50% for Argyrokastriti
- • Offered home price (2.03) is above the fair-price threshold (2.000) given our probability estimate