Highlights

• • Market implied chance for Primucci: ~60.5%; our estimate: ~65%
• • Positive EV of ~0.074 per unit at the quoted price

Pros

• + Clearer recent form edge for Primucci on clay
• + Current price (1.654) exceeds our min required odds (1.538) for positive EV

Cons

• - Primucci's overall sample size is small (8 matches), increasing outcome variance
• - Lack of head-to-head, fitness, and matchup detail increases model risk

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Leonardo Primucci (1/1.654 = 60.5%) to our estimate of his true chance (~65%). Primucci shows a materially better recent win rate (5-3) and cleaner recent results on clay relative to Mariano Tammaro (10-17 overall, weaker recent form), so we assign Primucci a higher win probability than the market. The market price (1.654) therefore offers a positive edge: our estimated probability (65%) produces an EV of ~7.4% at the quoted odds. Uncertainties include small sample size for Primucci and limited H2H / injury detail, which we factor into a conservative probability rather than an extreme projection.

Key factors

• • Primucci has a better recent win rate (5-3) while Tammaro is 10-17 overall, indicating form advantage to Primucci
• • Both players have recent clay activity, so surface is neutral but confirms match-readiness
• • Small sample size for Primucci and limited head-to-head/injury data increase variance and model uncertainty