Mariano Tammaro vs Marcello Serafini

Highlights

• • Home underdog price (2.85) is above our fair line (2.50)
• • Conservative 40% win estimate yields positive EV (+0.14)

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability and the market price
• + Both players' profiles show no injury flags in the provided data

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form and limited sample sizes, increasing variance
• - No H2H data and limited contextual factors available in the research

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our read of the two players from the supplied profiles. The book gives Mariano Tammaro (home) 2.85 (implied win prob ~35.1%) and Marcello Serafini (away) 1.377 (implied ~72.7%). Both players show losing recent form in the provided match logs, but Serafini has a better overall record (16-21 vs Tammaro 10-17) and more matches played, which supports him as the favorite. That said, the market price for Tammaro (2.85) appears to overstate his underdog status relative to a conservative estimate of his chance here. Given similar surface experience (clay/hard for both) and lack of injury information or H2H, we assign Tammaro a realistic win probability of 40%. At that probability the fair decimal line is 2.50 (1/0.40). Since the current market offers 2.85, the play on Tammaro offers positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.85 - 1 = +0.14 (14% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because the estimated true probability exceeds the break-even threshold implied by the market. We note uncertainty due to both players' recent results and small-sample career data, so this is a value-based contrarian selection rather than a certainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (35.1%) is below our estimated true probability (40%)
• • Both players have weak recent form, but Serafini's better overall record does not justify 72.7% market pricing
• • Both compete on clay/hard per profiles; no reported injuries or H2H to alter the baseline