Highlights

• • Market implies Luciano only ~36% despite near-identical profiles
• • Our estimate of 48% for Luciano makes 2.75 a positive-EV price

Pros

• + Significant edge between our probability and the market-implied price for the away player
• + No evidence in the research of a clear advantage for the favorite to justify 1.426

Cons

• - Both players have limited sample sizes and generally poor recent results, increasing volatility
• - Lack of head-to-head, venue, or detailed match-up data raises uncertainty around the true win probability

Details

We find value on Lavinia Luciano (away). The market prices Marie Weckerle at 1.426 (implied ~70.1%) and Luciano at 2.75 (implied ~36.4%), which implies a strong favorite despite both players showing essentially identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience. There are no clear injury or form advantages for Weckerle in the provided research and recent results are poor for both, so a fair neutral estimate would be close to even; we assign Luciano a 48.0% true win probability based on parity between the two, modest uncertainty, and the modest likelihood that the market overprices the home player. At our estimate, the away price 2.75 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.75 - 1 = 0.32), so Luciano represents a value bet versus the current market price.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history
• • Market strongly favors home (implied ~70%) which looks overstated given parity
• • No reported injuries or clear form edge for the favorite in the provided data