Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Grekul: ~9.1%; our estimate: 12.0%
• • Positive EV at quoted 11.0 odds (EV = +0.32, or +32% ROI)

Pros

• + Large difference between market-implied probability and our conservative estimate yields clear value
• + No research-supported injury or advantage present for the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Limited and identical data for both players increases uncertainty in our estimate
• - Match status is unknown (possible late information, withdrawal or qualifier effects not captured), increasing risk

Details

The market prices Marie Weckerle at 1.03 (implied ~97%) and Elena Grekul at 11.0 (implied ~9%). Our assessment of the available data shows both players have near-identical profiles (10-21 career records, same surfaces, similar recent form) with no reported injuries or clear H2H advantage. There is no substantive evidence in the research justifying an overwhelmingly heavy favorite; therefore the market appears to be mispricing Grekul materially. Conservatively, we estimate Grekul's true win probability at 12.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 9.09% for 11.0 odds. At the quoted 11.0 decimal odds this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.12*11 - 1 = 0.32, or +32% ROI), so a bet on the away player offers value under our model. We remain cautious due to limited data and the possibility of market information not present in the research (injury, withdrawal, or qualification status), which increases risk despite the positive EV.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and surfaces in the provided data (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.03) despite no evidence in the research supporting such a large gap
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface advantage reported in the research to justify the favorite’s price