Highlights

• • Market implies Thamm ~36.1% but we estimate ~38.0%
• • Positive EV for Thamm at current decimal odds 2.77 (~+0.053)

Pros

• + Current price (2.77) slightly exceeds our fair odds threshold (min required 2.632)
• + Both players' records and recent results in the research do not justify the market's heavy favoritism

Cons

• - Edge is modest (~5.3% ROI) and could disappear with additional info (injury, draw, H2H) not in the provided research
• - Tennis match variance is high; single-match outcomes can deviate significantly from probabilities

Details

The market prices Harmony Tan as a heavy favorite (1.382 -> implied ~72.4%) while Mariella Thamm is offered at 2.77 (implied ~36.1%). Based solely on the provided player profiles both competitors show very similar career records (around 10-22/10-21) and form (multiple recent losses, play on similar surfaces), so we do not see a 72% true win probability for Tan. We estimate a more modest edge to Tan and assign Thamm a 38.0% win probability (Tan 62.0%). At Thamm 2.77 this yields positive edge: EV = 0.38*2.77 - 1 = +0.0526 (≈5.3% ROI per unit). Therefore Thamm represents value versus the market's implied probabilities. The recommendation is conditional on the provided odds (2.77) remaining available.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical season records and recent form in the supplied profiles
• • Market heavily favors Tan (implied ~72%), which appears overstated given available data
• • Surface experience is similar (both have matches on hard and clay), reducing a clear matchup edge
• • No injuries or decisive form swings are documented in the provided research to justify the large market gap