Highlights

• • Pislak's recent results and season record point to lower true win probability than market implies
• • Home at 2.14 yields a modest positive expected value under conservative assumptions

Pros

• + Positive EV (~2.7% ROI) at widely available current price
• + Decision grounded on explicit poor form and season record for the favorite

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Mariia Drobysheva increases uncertainty in the estimated probability
• - Edge is small; variance and limited-sample risk remain material

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.14, Away 1.617) to an evidence-based read of the players. Research shows Manca Pislak has a 2024–2025 record of 10-21 (≈32% career win rate over that span) with recent losses at Challenger-level hard events. That poor recent form and overall win rate suggest the market's ~61.9% implied probability for Pislak (1/1.617) is inflated. We conservatively estimate Pislak's true chance around 52%, implying Drobysheva's true chance ≈48%. At the current home decimal price 2.14, that 48% win probability produces a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.027 per unit staked). Given limited direct data on Mariia Drobysheva, we remain conservative in our probability assignment but still find value backing the home underdog at 2.14.

Key factors

• • Manca Pislak's 2024-2025 record is 10-21, indicating weak recent form
• • Recent losses at Challenger hard events suggest negative short-term trend for Pislak
• • Market heavily favors Pislak (implied ~61.9%) which appears overstated given her documented win rate