Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability: 80%; our conservative estimate: 76%
• • Breakeven odds for our estimate: 1.316 — current price 1.25 is too short

Pros

• + Avoids wagering when available prices fail to exceed our conservative true probability threshold
• + Conservative stance reduces the chance of overestimating value due to missing information

Cons

• - If our conservative probability underestimates the home player, a small positive edge could be missed
• - Lack of specific match data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate

Details

We have no external research or injury/form data, only the quoted moneyline (Home 1.25, Away 3.65). The market-implied probability for the home player is 80% (1/1.25). Given the lack of additional information and to be conservative, we estimate the true probability of a Mariia Drobysheva win at 76% (0.76). At the current home price of 1.25 this yields a negative expected return (EV = 0.76 * 1.25 - 1 = -0.05), so the price does not represent value versus our conservative estimate. For the away side, the market price would imply ~27.4% but our conservative estimate for the away win (1 - 0.76 = 0.24) likewise produces a negative EV at 3.65. Therefore we recommend no bet: current prices do not offer positive expected value relative to our conservative probability model.

Key factors

• • Only market odds available; no form, surface, H2H, or injury data to refine the model
• • Market implies 80% for the home favourite but we apply a conservative 76% estimate to account for uncertainty and bookmaker margin
• • At current prices the favourite's decimal (1.25) is below our required breakeven (1.316), producing negative EV