Mariia Drobysheva vs Deborah Chiesa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices Chiesa; at a conservative true win probability of 30% for Drobysheva the 4.05 line offers positive EV (≈0.215). However, uncertainty is high due to limited opponent data.
Highlights
- • Chiesa market-implied win prob 83.3% (1.20) seems inconsistent with her 10-21 record
- • Drobysheva at 4.05 implies 24.7% — we estimate ~30%, giving value
Pros
- + Clear numerical mispricing between Chiesa's recent record and heavy market favoritism
- + Current decimal price (4.05) is above our min required odds (3.333) for positive EV
Cons
- - Very limited direct data on Mariia Drobysheva increases model risk
- - If the market price reflects unseen factors (injury, head-to-head dominance, surface advantage) EV could evaporate
Details
We find value backing the home player, Mariia Drobysheva, because the market heavily favors Deborah Chiesa (away) at 1.20 decimal, implying an 83.3% win probability, while the available data on Chiesa (10-21 record in 31 matches with recent losses) suggests she is far less dominant than the market price implies. The market-implied probability for Drobysheva at 4.05 is 24.7%; given Chiesa's sub-50% recent form and lack of overwhelming evidence that Drobysheva is a weak opponent, we estimate Drobysheva's true win probability at ~30.0%. At that estimate the minimum fair decimal odds are 3.333 and the offered 4.05 represents positive expected value. We acknowledge elevated uncertainty due to limited direct data on Drobysheva and no H2H or injury details; that increases variance but does not erase the clear mispricing versus Chiesa's documented win-loss record.
Key factors
- • Deborah Chiesa's documented 10-21 record (31 matches) implies much lower win expectancy than market odds suggest
- • Market implies Drobysheva only 24.7% chance; our estimate 30% exceeds that, creating value
- • High uncertainty due to no provided H2H, surface/detailed form or injury info for Drobysheva