Mariia Nozdrachova vs Angelina Voloshchuk
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value to be found: the favorite is priced too cheaply for the level of supporting evidence and the underdog lacks data to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Market extreme: 1.02 implies ~98% win chance
- • Research shows Voloshchuk has a modest 10-21 record — not consistent with near-certainty
Pros
- + If Voloshchuk truly is far superior, the market price reflects that and there is low variance risk on match outcome
- + Underdog price of 12.0 would be valuable only if evidence supported a >8.33% win chance
Cons
- - Current favorite price (1.02) offers no EV unless true win probability >98.04%, which is implausible given data
- - Insufficient information on the underdog prevents exploiting the long price
Details
We find no value at current market prices. The market prices Angelina Voloshchuk as an overwhelming favorite at 1.02 (implied ~98.0%), but the only research available (Voloshchuk career profile) shows a 10-21 record and mixed recent results, which does not support an almost-certain win. We estimate Voloshchuk's true win probability substantially lower than the market-implied 98%, so betting the favorite at 1.02 yields negative expected value. There is no information on Mariia Nozdrachova to justify backing her at 12.0, and the underdog price would only be attractive if we could confidently assign her >8.33% win probability; we lack evidence to do so. Given limited data and the extreme bookmaker price on the favorite, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Voloshchuk (1.02) is ~98.0%, which appears unrealistic given available form data
- • Available research shows Voloshchuk career record 10-21 with mixed recent results — not dominant
- • No usable data provided on Mariia Nozdrachova to justify backing the 12.0 underdog