Marin Cilic vs Corentin Moutet

Highlights

• • Cilic's documented win rate (62.2%) materially exceeds Moutet's (53.3%) in the provided data
• • Current odds (2.53) imply far lower probability than our estimate, generating +EV

Pros

• + Clear win-rate edge in the supplied match data
• + Large gap between our true-probability estimate and the market-implied probability

Cons

• - No head-to-head or specific surface/venue information in the provided material to further refine the model
• - Recent high-level losses are present for both players in the supplied excerpts, adding uncertainty

Details

We see clear value backing Marin Cilic at current moneyline 2.53. The market prices Cilic at ~39.5% implied probability while Corentin Moutet is the favorite at ~65.5% (1.526). From the provided player data Cilic has a superior win rate over the referenced span (28-17 in 45 matches ≈ 62.2% win rate) versus Moutet (32-28 in 60 matches ≈ 53.3%). Conservatively adjusting Cilic's raw win-rate edge for matchup variance and the lack of head-to-head/surface advantage data, we estimate Cilic's true win probability at 58%. At that probability the breakeven decimal odds are 1.724, well below the available 2.53, producing a positive expected value. There are no injury notes or clear surface biases in the supplied material, so our edge is driven primarily by the documented win-rate differential and Cilic's greater conversion of matches to wins in the provided sample.

Key factors

• • Cilic's higher documented win rate in the provided sample (≈62.2% vs 53.3%)
• • Market strongly favors Moutet (implied ~65.5%) creating a large gap versus our 58% estimate for Cilic
• • No injury or surface advantage data provided, so value comes from win-rate differential and experience